Param

Investor Meet

Citations from the Investor Conclave By Mr. Sankaran Naren, CIO of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
FII’s are not always correct; they too can go wrong in their stock picking.

During 1995-2002, equity markets gave 0% returns. Pessimism prevailed; everybody felt equities would never deliver returns. Those who invested during 2002-2003, when the markets were at rock bottom, saw the markets deliver phenomenal returns over the next 6 years (2003-2008). The point to be highlighted here is - 'Be bullish when everyone is bearish'. Invest in an asset class (property, gold, equity/stock market or bonds/fixed deposits) in which no one is willing to invest and be ready to look foolish.

Investing is not something that you can ideally do in a group.

There is truth in Benjamin Graham’s famous quote, “Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from their investments.”

When every asset class is doing well, it is a good time to invest in gold funds.

Learn from your past experience

Be careful while picking stocks directly.


Things people could have done/avoided in the last 15 years while investing

Avoided investing in technology funds in 2000. During 1997-2000, all technology stocks gave 200% return. Because of the past high returns, one could have stayed away from such funds.

Invested in equity funds in 2002. Over the past 6-7 years, return on equity was 0%. This was an indicator that equity would offer profits going forward.

Avoided investing in income funds in June 2013. Income funds had delivered 15% returns over the previous year. This high return was the indicator to stay away from this asset class.

Having done/avoiding the above would have helped you make decent returns. Unfortunately, 98% of people make the above mistakes while the balance 2% tends to cash in on the best returns. It is not knowledge but emotions that matter the most in taking the above decisions.

Do not diversify across too many investment avenues; by doing this, you tend to get average returns. Do not create a zoo of investments. Do not look at past returns to make your investment decision.

Points you could consider before investing in real estate, gold, debt and equity:
  1. Real Estate : Mortgage Rate - Rental Yield
    If the difference is below 5% then real estate is attractive;
    If the difference is above 7% then real estate is unattractive.
  2. Gold : International gold price / Brent Crude oil price
    If the ratio is below 10% then gold is attractive.
  3. Debt : 1-Year Bank FD Rate – Wholesale price Index (WPI)
    1-Year Bank FD Rate - Consumer price Index (CPI)
    If the sum total of both the above ratios is equal to 2 or more, then fixed income is attractive; if the sum is below 2, then fixed income is unattractive.
  4. Equity : PE: Market price of share / Earnings per Share
    If the PE ratio of the index is below 12% then equity is attractive;
    If the PE ratio of the index is above 18% then equity is unattractive.